If it’s not clear to you by now that former president Donald Trump is a threat to the healthy functioning of American democracy, then I’m not really sure what more can be done to convince you. Maybe it would take Trump coming out and declaring his intention to crown himself president for life if he were to occupy the oval office again. But make no mistake, even if you don’t believe it, Trump has shown all of us exactly who he is. The only question that remains is how those that come after him in the Republican Party will deal with the political climate he’s left behind.
When historians look back at Trump’s time at the center of American politics, they might see something even more significant than his spurring of violence on January 6th 2021, or his friendly dealings with foreign dictators like Vladimir Putin. Trump’s constant assault on the press, his trashing of democratic norms, and his disdain for the institutions of democratic government have created a kind of ‘meta-political’ paradigm shift. This basically means that Trump’s autocratic behavior, even though it didn’t succeed, has created a new political landscape. One where elections can be constantly challenged, laws can be ignored, and violence is seen as a justified means to political ends. When it is all said and done, Trump’s greatest impact on American democracy might not be attempting its destruction, but paving the way for its unraveling.
In the 2020 book, ‘Mortal Republic: How Rome Fell Into Tyranny’, historian Edward J. Watts shows how Rome’s republic crumbled bit by bit, leader by leader over decades. Political and cultural norms faded, stabilizing customs were discarded, and political violence slowly became normalized. This kind of ‘birds eye’ view of historical drift is only really possible with centuries of hindsight. Yet this is precisely the kind of notion I believe historians will see when they look back on the current situation in the United States. Like a historical character out of Watt’s book, Donald Trump has opened the door for a truly malign actor to capitalize on the democratic vacuum he will eventually leave in the Republican Party.
As of now, it seems a fait accompli that Florida governor Ron DeSantis is the heir apparent to Trump’s hold on the Republican Party. Assuming DeSantis wins his upcoming reelection contest, he will be the favorite to become the Republican Party’s presidential nominee in 2024, or 2028. Recently profiled by Dexter Filkins in the New Yorker, DeSantis has a sterling resume: educated at Yale and Harvard despite a working class background, an accomplished athlete through college, and a military veteran who served in Iraq. Unlike Donald Trump, DeSantis can retain information, focus on important matters, and make strategic plans. Yet unfortunately, just like Trump, DeSantis seems motivated by resentment and intoxicated with wielding concentrated power. In other words, the great fear now is that DeSantis could turn out to be a smart, capable version of his orange faced predecessor.
DeSantis has seemingly embraced the ‘Trumpian’ way of governance. He relishes battling the press in the manner Trump did so effectively. That is to say effective in such a way as creating an ‘enemy’ to battle, conquer, and rally his followers in opposition. Authoritarians need a great ideological enemy to focus mass rage. Think Emmanuel Goldstein in George Orwell’s novel, ‘1984’. The list of mainstream media failings is long, yet it doesn’t preclude the fact that DeSantis and others are now using ‘the media’ as a propaganda strawman. As the ‘Inner Party’ knew in Orwell’s tale, DeSantis knows the power that anger and fear can have over a citizenry.
He has taken up arms in the culture wars of the day. Passing vague legislation to regulate gender discussion in schools, battling a ‘woke’ Disney corporation, and making a show of dismissing a Florida State Attorney that didn’t ideologically tow the party line. All of this could be seen as cynical positioning for a future presidential run. After all, if the Republican Party has become a cult of personality around Donald Trump; then the best way to take control of the party would be to mimic the personality of Donald Trump. This begs the question, is DeSantis a true MAGA believer? Or is he just playing a role to get ahead.
What would DeSantis do if he were to win the Republican nomination, and the presidency, running in the mold of Donald Trump. Would he remain within the norms of democratic government despite its weakened state? Or would he give in to his worst impulses and take advantage of the guardrails Trump left in shambles. Would he speak the truth to his millions of loyal followers about the sanctity of American elections, even if he lost? Or would he continue to feed Trump’s ‘big lie’ that the system is rigged if your chosen Republican candidate faces defeat.
I think if this were thirty years ago, Ron DeSantis would be a typical Bush-like Republican. Lots of shitty policies, but a certain fidelity to the Constitution, the rule of law, etc. But in 2022 DeSantis has the levers of authoritarianism at his disposal. Will he be able to resist them? As Edward Watts showed us, when individuals arrive on the historical scene amid the winds of authoritarian creep, very often their impulses get the best of them. I fear DeSantis will be no different.